The Value of Collaborative Forecasting in Supply Chains
نویسندگان
چکیده
M by the mixed evidence concerning the adoption level and value of collaborative forecasting (CF) implementations in retail supply chains, in this paper, we explore the conditions under which CF offers the highest potential. We consider a two-stage supply chain with a single supplier selling its product to consumers through a single retailer. We assume that both the supplier and the retailer can improve the quality of their demand forecasts by making costly forecasting investments to gather and analyze information. First, we consider a noncollaborative model where the supplier and the retailer can invest in forecasting but do not share forecast information. Next, we examine a collaborative forecasting model where the supplier and the retailer combine their information to form a single shared demand forecast. We investigate the value of CF by comparing each party’s profits in these scenarios under three contractual forms that are widely used in practice (two variations of the simple wholesale price contract as well as the buyback contract). We show that for a given set of parameters, CF may be Pareto improving for none to all three of the contractual structures, and that the Pareto regions under all three contractual structures can be expressed with a unifying expression that admits an intuitive interpretation. We observe that these regions are limited and explain how they are shaped by the contractual structure, power balance, and relative forecasting capability of the parties. To determine the specific value of collaborative forecasting as a function of different factors, we carry out a numerical analysis and observe the following. First, under noncoordinating contracts, improved information as a result of CF has the added benefit of countering the adverse effects of double marginalization in addition to reducing the cost of supply–demand mismatch. Second, one may expect the value of CF to increase with bargaining power, however this does not hold in general: The value of CF for the newsvendor first increases and then decreases in his bargaining power. Finally, whereas one may expect CF to be more valuable under coordinating contracts, rather than a simple wholesale price contract that is prone to double marginalization, the magnitude of the gain from CF is in many cases higher in the absence of quantity coordination.
منابع مشابه
A Hybrid Dynamic Programming for Inventory Routing Problem in Collaborative Reverse Supply Chains
Inventory routing problems arise as simultaneous decisions in inventory and routing optimization. In the present study, vendor managed inventory is proposed as a collaborative model for reverse supply chains and the optimization problem is modeled in terms of an inventory routing problem. The studied reverse supply chains include several return generators and recovery centers and one collection...
متن کاملDynamic configuration and collaborative scheduling in supply chains based on scalable multi-agent architecture
Due to diversified and frequently changing demands from customers, technological advances and global competition, manufacturers rely on collaboration with their business partners to share costs, risks and expertise. How to take advantage of advancement of technologies to effectively support operations and create competitive advantage is critical for manufacturers to survive. To respond to these...
متن کاملA Robust Modeling Of Inventory Routing In Collaborative Reverse Supply Chains
This paper proposes a robust model for optimizing collaborative reverse supply chains. The primary idea is to develop a collaborative framework that can achieve the best solutions in the uncertain environment. Firstly, we model the exact problem in the form of a mixed integer nonlinear programming. To regard uncertainty, the robust optimization is employed that searches for an optimum answer wi...
متن کاملOn the Bullwhip Effect Measure in Supply Chains with VAR (1) Demand Process
In this paper, a two-echelon supply chain, which includes two products based on the following considerations, has been studied and the bullwhip effect is quantified. Providing a measure for bullwhip effect that enables us to analyze and reduce this phenomenon in supply chains with two products is the basic purpose of this paper. Demand of products is presented by the first order vector autoregr...
متن کاملThe Design of Inverse Network DEA Model for Measuring the Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains with Uncertain Demands
Two different bullwhip effects with equal scores may have different sensitivities and production patterns. As a result, the difference between these two seemingly equal scores has been ignored in previous methods (such as frequency response and moving average). So, the present study constructs a model of Inverse Network Data Envelopment Analysis, to introduce the relative and interval scores of...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید
ثبت ناماگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید
ورودعنوان ژورنال:
- Manufacturing & Service Operations Management
دوره 14 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2012